Method’s corner: Allergist’s guide to network meta-analysis

Network meta-analyses (NMAs) simultaneously estimate the effects of multiple possible treatment options for a given clinical presentation. For allergists to benefit optimally from NMAs, they must understand the process and be able to interpret the results. Through a worked example published in Pediatric Allergy and Immunology, we summarize how to identify credible NMAs and interpret them with a focus on recent innovations in the GRADE approach (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). NMAs build on traditional systematic reviews and meta-analyses that consider only direct paired comparisons by including indirect evidence, thus allowing the simultaneous assessment of the relative effect of all pairs of competing alternatives. Our framework informs clinicians of how to identify credible NMAs and address the certainty of the evidence. Trustworthy NMAs fill a critical gap in providing key inferences using direct and indirect evidence to inform clinical decision making when faced with more than two competing courses of treatment options. This document will help allergists to identify trustworthy NMAs to enhance patient care.     

Stabilization and formulation of a recombinant Human Cytomegalovirus vector for use as a candidate HIV-1 vaccine

Live attenuated viral vaccine/vector candidates are inherently unstable and infectivity titer losses can readily occur without defining appropriate formulations, storage conditions and clinical handling practices. During initial process development of a candidate vaccine against HIV-1 using a recombinant Human Cytomegalovirus vector (rHCMV-1), large vector titer losses were observed after storage at 4 °C and after undergoing freeze-thaw. Thus, the goal of this work was to develop candidate frozen liquid formulations of rHCMV-1 with improved freeze-thaw and short-term liquid stability for potential use in early clinical trials. To this end, a virus stability screening protocol was developed including use of a rapid, in vitro cell-based immunofluorescence focus assay to quantitate viral titers. A library of ∼50 pharmaceutical excipients (from various known classes of additives) were evaluated for their effect on vector stability after freeze-thaw cycling or incubation at 4 °C for several days. Certain additives including sugars and polymers (e.g., trehalose, sucrose, sorbitol, hydrolyzed gelatin, dextran 40) as well as removal of NaCl (lower ionic strength) protected rHCMV-1 against freeze-thaw mediated losses in viral titers. Optimized solution conditions (e.g., solution pH, buffers and sugar type) slowed the rate of rHCMV-1 titer losses in the liquid state at 4 °C. After evaluating various excipient combinations, three new candidate formulations were designed and rHCMV-1 stability was benchmarked against both the currently-used and a previously reported formulation. The new candidate formulations were significantly more stable in terms of reducing rHCMV-1 titer losses after 5 freeze-thaw cycles or incubation at 4 °C for 30 days. This case study highlights the utility of semi-empirical design of frozen liquid formulations of a live viral vaccine candidate, where protection against infectivity titer losses due to freeze-thaw and short-term liquid storage are sufficient to enable more rapid initiation of early clinical trials.     

Treatment sequence network meta-analysis in Crohn’s disease: a methodological case study

Objective: Several biologic therapies are available for the treatment of mild-to-moderate Crohn’s disease (CD). This network meta-analysis (NMA) aimed to assess the comparative efficacy of ustekinumab, adalimumab, vedolizumab and infliximab in the maintenance of clinical response and remission after 1?year of treatment.

Methods: A systematic literature search was performed to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Key outcomes of interest were clinical response (CD activity index [CDAI] reduction of 100 points; CDAI-100) and remission (CDAI score under 150 points; CDAI < 150). A treatment sequence Bayesian NMA was conducted to account for the re-randomization of patients based on different clinical definitions, the lack of similarity of the common comparator for each trial and the full treatment pathway from the induction phase onwards.

Results: Thirteen RCTs were identified. Ustekinumab 90?mg q8w was associated with statistically significant improvement in clinical response relative to placebo and vedolizumab 300?mg. For clinical remission, ustekinumab 90?mg q8w was associated with statistically significant improvement relative to placebo and vedolizumab 300?mg q8w. Findings from sub-population analyses had similar results but were not statistically significant.

Conclusions: The NMA suggest that ustekinumab is associated with the highest likelihood of reaching response or remission at 1?year compared with placebo, adalimumab and vedolizumab. Results should be interpreted with caution because this is a novel methodology; however, the treatment sequence analysis may be the most methodologically sound analysis to derive estimates of comparative efficacy in CD in the absence of head-to-head evidence.     

Indirect costs of rheumatoid arthritis

It is estimated that in Poland about 400,000 persons in general suffer from inflammatory joint diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Epidemiological surveys documenting the frequency and disturbance of musculoskeletal disorders in the Polish population are few in number. Most of the estimations are based on epidemiological data from other countries (prevalence of 0.5–1%). According to the data of the National Health Fund in Poland 135,000–157,000 persons in total are treated because of rheumatoid arthritis per year [ICD10 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems): M05, M06]. In the case of this group of diseases indirect costs significantly outweigh the direct costs. Indirect costs increase together with activity level of the disease. The cost analysis of productivity loss of RA patients indicates that sickness absenteeism and informal care are the most burdensome. At the national level it amounts in total from 1.2 billion to 2.8 billion PLN per year, depending on the method of analysis. These costs could be significantly reduced through early diagnosis and introduction of effective treatment.     

Development of chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay for the determination of aflatoxin M1 in milk products

In this study, an indirect competitive chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay (ic-CLEIA) for determining aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in milk products has been developed. A luminol–hydrogen peroxide chemiluminescence system catalysed by horseradish peroxidase (HRP) was used as the signal detecting system. The effects of several factors, including concentration and pH of phosphate buffer, dilution ratio of antibody and antigen and other relevant variables on the immunoassay, were studied and optimised by single-factor experiments. The developed method presented an IC₅₀ of 0.05 ng/mL, a detection limit of 0.01 ng/mL and a linear range from 0.018 to 0.13 ng/mL. This method has been successfully applied to the evaluation of AFM₁ in milk products, the recoveries ranging from 71.9% to 109.0%. A good correlation with the commercial available ELISA kit for AFM₁ (r = 0.9978) was obtained, indicating that the ic-CLEIA method developed can be used to determine AFM₁ in real samples.     

间接式母亲心音与语音乐律输入法在早产儿中的应用

目的:观察间接式母亲心音与语音乐律输入法在早产儿中的应用效果。方法:将收治重症新生儿监护室的80例早产儿按照随机数字表法分为观察组、对照组,每组40例,对照组给予早产儿常规护理,观察组在常规护理的基础上加用间接式母亲心音与语音乐律输入法干预,干预前后对两组早产儿睡眠时间、体重进行比较。结果:观察组早产儿干预后睡眠时间长于对照组(P<0.05)、体重重于对照组(P<0.05)。结论:采用间接式母亲心音与语音乐律输入法对早产儿进行干预可明显增加睡眠时间,促进体重增长。     

Assessment and management of the predicted difficult airway in babies and children

Although it is essential to take a history and examine every child prior to airway management, preoperative anticipation of a difficult airway is not totally reliable and therefore it is wise to be prepared for the unexpected difficult airway. Information about the airway can be gained from previous medical records, current history, physical examination and other tests. A natural consequence of airway assessment is development of an airway plan. Important anatomical and physiological features may be identified in an airway assessment which can then have a direct influence on the subsequent airway plan. Managing the predicted difficult airway is usually elective. This allows proper preparation of equipment, assistants, expertise and the environment required for the airway plan. This article will discuss paediatric airway assessment, outline those features that contribute to airway difficulty, and identify indications and risk factors associated with various airway techniques. Key objectives for an airway management plan are to maintain oxygenation and avoid trauma. This involves adopting techniques that avoid hypoxia and provide a high success rate with minimum attempts.     

Comparative efficacy of first-line ceritinib and crizotinib in advanced or metastatic anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive non-small cell lung cancer: an adjusted indirect comparison with external controls

Objective: In the absence of head-to-head trials, this study indirectly compared progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between ceritinib and crizotinib among patients with previously untreated advanced anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Methods: A matching-adjusted indirect comparison method was implemented to adjust for cross-trial differences in patient characteristics between ASCEND-4 and PROFILE 1014 trials. Patient-level data from ASCEND-4 and published summary data from PROFILE 1014 were used. Patients in ASCEND-4 were reweighted to match average baseline characteristics (i.e. age, sex, race, tumor histology, ECOG score, smoking status, extent of disease, and presence of brain metastases) reported for PROFILE 1014 patients using propensity score weighting. PFS and OS were then compared between balanced populations.

Results: ASCEND-4 included more current smokers (8.0% vs 4.4%) and fewer patients under the age of 65 years (78.5% vs 84.0%) compared to PROFILE 1014. After matching, these and all other patient characteristics were balanced between the two trial populations. Compared to crizotinib, ceritinib was associated with a significantly longer PFS (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] (HR [CI])?=?0.64 [0.47–0.87]; median PFS: 25.2 vs 10.8 months, log-rank p-value?=?0.003). OS did not differ significantly, with a HR of 0.82 [0.54–1.27] for ceritinib compared to crizotinib.

Conclusions: In the adjusted indirect comparison with external controls, the second generation ALK inhibitor, ceritinib, was associated with a significantly prolonged PFS compared to crizotinib as first-line treatment for ALK-positive NSCLC.